News
Bear
Volatility: 3/5
Fed’s Waller Says September Rate Decision Hinges on August CPI
September 03, 2026
·
bloomberg
·
70% confidence
Summary
Fed's Waller hints September rate hike is still possible, hinging on August CPI, which raises hawkish expectations.
AI Analysis
Hawkish Fed commentary increases expectations for higher policy rates, pushing bond yields up and equity multiples down. Broad market is negative as rate hikes tighten financial conditions and raise discount rates for future earnings.
Direction
Bear
Volatility
3/5 - Moderate
AI Confidence
70%
Affected Stocks
JPM
GS
MET
NVDA
AAPL
XLU
Likely Winners
JPM (JPMorgan Chase)
GS (Goldman Sachs)
MET (MetLife)
Likely Losers
NVDA (Nvidia)
AAPL (Apple)
XLU (Utilities Select SPDR ETF)
Suggested Action
Buy US 2-Year Treasury futures or TLT puts to hedge duration risk if CPI comes in hot
Recommended Actions
- Buy US 2-Year Treasury futures or TLT puts to hedge duration risk if CPI comes in hot
- Long JPM or GS calls to benefit from a steeper yield curve if the Fed tightens
- Short SPY or use puts to hedge equity exposure into the August CPI release
- Monitor CME FedWatch tool to adjust positioning based on market-implied September probability
- Sell NVDA calls to hedge high-multiple tech risk from rising discount rates