News Bear Volatility: 3/5

Fed’s Waller Says September Rate Decision Hinges on August CPI

September 03, 2026 · bloomberg · 70% confidence
Summary

Fed's Waller hints September rate hike is still possible, hinging on August CPI, which raises hawkish expectations.

AI Analysis

Hawkish Fed commentary increases expectations for higher policy rates, pushing bond yields up and equity multiples down. Broad market is negative as rate hikes tighten financial conditions and raise discount rates for future earnings.

Direction
Bear
Volatility
3/5 - Moderate
AI Confidence
70%
Affected Stocks
JPM GS MET NVDA AAPL XLU
Likely Winners
JPM (JPMorgan Chase) GS (Goldman Sachs) MET (MetLife)
Likely Losers
NVDA (Nvidia) AAPL (Apple) XLU (Utilities Select SPDR ETF)
Suggested Action

Buy US 2-Year Treasury futures or TLT puts to hedge duration risk if CPI comes in hot

Recommended Actions
  • Buy US 2-Year Treasury futures or TLT puts to hedge duration risk if CPI comes in hot
  • Long JPM or GS calls to benefit from a steeper yield curve if the Fed tightens
  • Short SPY or use puts to hedge equity exposure into the August CPI release
  • Monitor CME FedWatch tool to adjust positioning based on market-implied September probability
  • Sell NVDA calls to hedge high-multiple tech risk from rising discount rates

Related Articles