News Bear Volatility: 3/5

Slightly hotter than expected PCE inflation keeps Fed’s September rate rise in play

August 26, 2026 · financial_times · 80% confidence
Summary

Hotter July PCE inflation keeps Fed rate hike in play, pressuring stocks.

AI Analysis

Higher PCE inflation suggests sticky prices, likely keeping rates elevated for longer. Elevated discount rates compress equity valuations, especially long-duration growth stocks, while increasing interest burden on corporates.

Direction
Bear
Volatility
3/5 - Moderate
AI Confidence
80%
Affected Stocks
JPM GS NVDA MSFT DHI NEE
Likely Winners
JPM (JPMorgan Chase) GS (Goldman Sachs)
Likely Losers
NVDA (Nvidia) MSFT (Microsoft) DHI (D.R. Horton) NEE (NextEra Energy)
Suggested Action

Short the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as rates rise

Recommended Actions
  • Short the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as rates rise
  • Buy put options on the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) to hedge tech downside
  • Add to long positions in JPMorgan (JPM) for higher net interest margin
  • Monitor the CME FedWatch tool for September rate hike probability

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